quarta-feira, 24 de maio de 2017

UFC Fight Night 109 - Gustafsson vs Teixeira - Predictions

[#1] Alexander "The Mauler" Gustafsson  (17-4) vs [#2] Glover Teixeira (26-5)

I particularly do not like to bet on an event like that. Lots of local fighters. Many unknown fighters. The UFC calls the country's event fighters for a one-fight or two-fight contract. Just to please the public who would like to see their countrymen fighting. Odds also do not help. Superfavorite fighters, where you can not be trusted at all. It is very risky to gamble on such an event. So I'll just do an analysis of the main event of the night. Alexander Gustafsson v Glover Teixeira.

In 2013, after six straight wins, Gustafsson was the most likely fighter to beat Jon Jones. Not just for being a skilled fighter, but for being as big as Jones. "The Mauler" would have no problem with the American's reach. The fight was very disputed. Jon Jones won by unanimous decision. But many people saw Gustafsson's victory.

The following year, Gustafsson would again win against Jimi Manuwa and have a new chance against Jon Jones. Only an injury took the "The Mauler" out of the fight. After ten months stopped, he returns to the UFC to face Anthony Johnson in Sweden. It was the perfect fight for him. Fighting at home and against one of the best in the division. After an disregard in the first round, Gustafsson was knocked out. To lose in front of his fans, almost once the Swede retires. A few months later, he would fight Daniel Cormier for the belt. Was defeated by split decision. Again injured, Gustafsson only returned to fight a year later. Facing Jan Blachowicz, an opponent who had two losses in four fights at the UFC, Gustafsson had a performance well below the expected and only achieved a victory by unanimous decision.

The story of Glover Teixeira is not much different. After five straight wins, he fought for the belt and was defeated by Jon Jones. He had his chance again to fight a belt, when facing Anthony Johnson but was knocked out. This year, he faced the weakest fighter he has had in the UFC since 2012 and won by unanimous decision, without showing a good performance.

Again Gustafsson will fight in a UFC in Sweden. He certainly does not want to repeat the last fight. A second home defeat, even more by knockout, could end the fighter's career altogether. So I believe he will fight very cautiously this time. So he does not make the same mistake as before. He does not have to take a chance against Glover Teixeira. He knows that the Brazilian has a high power of knockout. I believe Gustafsson will keep the fight at distance. Use the reach. Run through the octagon. A jab here and another there. Punctuating slowly. He'll probably control the fight until the Brazilian gets tired. In the fourth round, it may be that Gustafsson press Glover Teixeira and try a finish. It is better to make an ugly fight and win the points, than to make a beautiful fight and lose by knockout in home (again).

My bet is Over 2.5 rounds (1.71) and that's it. I no longer see any value in other bets. Maybe Glover Teixeira by knockout (7.00), but still I do not believe he gets the knockout.

See you at UFC Brazil next week.

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