quinta-feira, 1 de junho de 2017

UFC 212 - The King Owl Top Five Bets - Free Picks - Free Prediction


 
UFC 212 - The King Owl Top Five Bets

[#1] José Aldo wins (1.70) (-142) [5un]
[#2] Claudia Gadelha wins by decision (1.56) (-180) [4un]
[#3] Belfort vs Marquardt Under 1.5 rounds (1.48) (-210) [3un]
[#4] Vitor Belfort wins inside distance (1.78) (-128) [2un]
[#5] Oluwale Bamgbose wins (3.35) (+235) [1un]

quarta-feira, 31 de maio de 2017

UFC 212 - José Aldo vs Max Holloway - Predictions


[#C] José "Scarface" Aldo (26-2) vs [#1] Max "Blessed" Holloway (17-3)

Ten years undefeated. WEC Champion. UFC Champion. Best UFC P4P fighter for a while. Best fighter of the featherweight division of all time. Won Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, Ricardo Lamas, Korean Zombie, Florian Kenny, Urijah Faber, Cub Swanson ...

He lost his unbeaten record to Conor McGregor. A quick fight. Only thirteen seconds. In thirteen seconds we saw Jose Aldo do something he had never done before. Run like crazy in the opponent's direction. If you think McGregor "broke" José Aldo, please forget that, review the Brazilian's last fight and tell me how someone "broken" can fight like that. Seven months later, Jose Aldo would contest the belt against Frankie Edgar. Completely focused and without making any mistake, the Brazilian won the fight. It was a perfect performance. He defended all takedown attempts against the division's best wrestler and one of the best in the world.

Max Holloway also lost to Conor McGregor. After this fight, the Hawaiian won his next ten fights. He is only 25 years old and will probably be the big name of the category when Jose Aldo retires. The two even have similar styles. So far he has had no problem in overcoming his opponents. But he got to the belt without facing Frankie Edgar or Chad Mendes. That's a downside. Is he really prepared to face a guy like Jose Aldo? The Brazilian is on another level. We will hardly see Holloway win. In what area could he win? I sincerely do not know. I do not see his victory.

I predict a good fight of exactly 25 minutes. Where we will see José Aldo frustrate any attempt of the American. The Brazilian will probably win every round (maybe lose the score of the last round). I believe that this fight will be more like "José Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar 2" than with "José Aldo vs. Chad Mendes 2".

The odds for José Aldo's victory have floated between (1.60) and (1.70), but someone who really likes Max Holloway bet on him and now we have a beautiful (1.90). You can bet on the Brazilian. Bet now. Because I do not see that odds increasing. This is the best value you will get. Follow me and pick José Aldo victory (1.90).

terça-feira, 30 de maio de 2017

UFC 212 - Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Predictions


[#1] Claudia "Claudinha" Gadelha (14-2) vs [#2] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-1)

The two fighters had their stories only stained by defeat for Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Beyond this resemblance, aggressiveness is another commonplace. Both are very aggressive standing. They are always going forward. Striking. Karolina Kowalkiewicz uses a lot or elbow. Both absorb the blows well. They were never finalized. It has everything to be a very close fight.

The difference in this fight, will be: and when things go wrong? And when will a stronger blow come in? And when one of them feels the blow?

Claudinha Gadelha is excellent at takedown attempts. It has an accuracy of 57%, and defend with 83% success. He takedown Joanna Jedrzejczyk seven times in the first duel. He takedown Lahdemaki five times. In their last fight against Casey, they were six takedowns. While Karolina Kowalkiewicz has only two takedown attempts in the last seventy minutes of fighting. Since neither attempt was successful.

If things go wrong for the Brazilian, she can take the fight to the floor. The same can not be said of Karolina. It is in this advantage that I believe that the victory of Claudinha Gadelha will come. She has more options for victory than Karolina Kowalkiewicz. If the Brazilian does not feel comfortable standing, she can take the fight to the ground and dominate Karolina Kowalkiewicz for the rest of the fight. The Brazilian is not aggressive only in the standing game. When he is on the ground, he always searches for the finishing and works well on the ground and pound.

My prediction for the fight is that Gadelha wins in the decision (1.63). The Brazilian should score better in the first two rounds. Putting the fight down when needed. Dominating the opponent. In the third round, the Brazilian usually slows down since her cardio is not the best. At this point, Karolina will take advantage to try the finish but I do not think she can. As I said earlier, if Gadelha finds herself in a dangerous situation she can easily take the fight to the ground.

segunda-feira, 29 de maio de 2017

UFC 212 - Vitor Belfort vs Nate Marquardt - Predictions


[#11] Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort (25-13) vs [#+15] Nate "The Great" Marquardt (35-17)

Vitor Belfort and Nate Marquardt. The two have already been big names in the middleweight division. Today, they live their worst moments. Vitor Belfort went into decline in the UFC after the use of TRT was banned. This was visible in the Brazilian's shape. Belfort has lost four of his last five fights. Marquardt started to have poor results when he traded the UFC for Strikeforce. Marquardt has lost seven of his last ten fights. Most of those fights by knockouts in the first two rounds.

This is the last fight of Vitor Belfort in the UFC. A fight in Brazil. In Rio de Janeiro. It's the end he wanted. He certainly chose this fight against Marquardt. He could have picked some inexperienced fighter, but he did not want to. He wanted someone with a story. Someone great. Someone was a challenge to him. Someone who could give him a good fight. The final battle. Someone who could easily be knocked out by the strong hands of the phenomenon.

I know it's hard to bet on Vitor Belfort. I know he lives the worst moment of his twenty plus year career. But the scenario is all set for a Brazilian victory. A beautiful victory. An expetacular knockout. He does not want to say goodbye to Brazil with a defeat. He does not want to say goodbye to the UFC being knocked out. He wants to repeat the moment he had against Wanderlei Silva. He will knock out Marquardt not only with his hand, but with the hand of all the fans.

Most likely this fight will end in the first round. Both have a very heavy hand and a very light chin. Any displacement of air near the chin of one of the two and finished. Still, Belfort has managed to keep that initial blast in the fights. He's tired two minutes after he blows out, but I believe those two minutes will be enough to knock out the Marquardt.

The Brazilian did not have easy life in the last fights, since it caught two very fast fighters like Gastelum and Jacaré. This time he faced an extremely slow opponent. I think it's time for this explosion to really blow up the opponent and not the Brazilian himself.

I'm a big fan of Vitor Belfort. You can feel free not to follow me in this fight. But it's impossible not to bet on a win of it. I could bet on Belfort's victory by knockout. But the odds are so similar to that of simple victory that they make me think ... thinking that the Brazilian could make the night more special by using his Brazilian jiu-jitsu. That is why my bet will be on the simple victory of Vitor Belfort (1.74). In the victory of Brazil.

quarta-feira, 24 de maio de 2017

UFC Fight Night 109 - Gustafsson vs Teixeira - Predictions


[#1] Alexander "The Mauler" Gustafsson  (17-4) vs [#2] Glover Teixeira (26-5)

I particularly do not like to bet on an event like that. Lots of local fighters. Many unknown fighters. The UFC calls the country's event fighters for a one-fight or two-fight contract. Just to please the public who would like to see their countrymen fighting. Odds also do not help. Superfavorite fighters, where you can not be trusted at all. It is very risky to gamble on such an event. So I'll just do an analysis of the main event of the night. Alexander Gustafsson v Glover Teixeira.

In 2013, after six straight wins, Gustafsson was the most likely fighter to beat Jon Jones. Not just for being a skilled fighter, but for being as big as Jones. "The Mauler" would have no problem with the American's reach. The fight was very disputed. Jon Jones won by unanimous decision. But many people saw Gustafsson's victory.

The following year, Gustafsson would again win against Jimi Manuwa and have a new chance against Jon Jones. Only an injury took the "The Mauler" out of the fight. After ten months stopped, he returns to the UFC to face Anthony Johnson in Sweden. It was the perfect fight for him. Fighting at home and against one of the best in the division. After an disregard in the first round, Gustafsson was knocked out. To lose in front of his fans, almost once the Swede retires. A few months later, he would fight Daniel Cormier for the belt. Was defeated by split decision. Again injured, Gustafsson only returned to fight a year later. Facing Jan Blachowicz, an opponent who had two losses in four fights at the UFC, Gustafsson had a performance well below the expected and only achieved a victory by unanimous decision.

The story of Glover Teixeira is not much different. After five straight wins, he fought for the belt and was defeated by Jon Jones. He had his chance again to fight a belt, when facing Anthony Johnson but was knocked out. This year, he faced the weakest fighter he has had in the UFC since 2012 and won by unanimous decision, without showing a good performance.

Again Gustafsson will fight in a UFC in Sweden. He certainly does not want to repeat the last fight. A second home defeat, even more by knockout, could end the fighter's career altogether. So I believe he will fight very cautiously this time. So he does not make the same mistake as before. He does not have to take a chance against Glover Teixeira. He knows that the Brazilian has a high power of knockout. I believe Gustafsson will keep the fight at distance. Use the reach. Run through the octagon. A jab here and another there. Punctuating slowly. He'll probably control the fight until the Brazilian gets tired. In the fourth round, it may be that Gustafsson press Glover Teixeira and try a finish. It is better to make an ugly fight and win the points, than to make a beautiful fight and lose by knockout in home (again).

My bet is Over 2.5 rounds (1.71) and that's it. I no longer see any value in other bets. Maybe Glover Teixeira by knockout (7.00), but still I do not believe he gets the knockout.

See you at UFC Brazil next week.

domingo, 14 de maio de 2017

UFC 211 - Bet Results


UFC 211 - The King Owl Card Bet

Results: GREEN = WIN, RED = LOSS

Stipe Miocic vs Junior dos Santos
Stipe Miocic wins (-130) by TKO/KO (+137)

Joanna Jedrzecjczyk vs Jessica Andrade
Jessica Andrade wins (+167) by Decision (+385)

Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal
Demian Maia wins (+115) by Submission (+256)

Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodriguez
Frankie Edgar wins (-120) inside distance (+560)

Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier
Eddie Alvarez wins (+110) by Decision (+255)
NO CONTEST FIGHT

David Branch vs Krzystof Jotko

Krzystof Jotko wins (-150) by Decision (+140)

Chas Skelly vs Jason Knight
Jason Knight wins (+100) inside distance (+275)

Rashad Coulter vs Chase Sherman
Chase Sherman wins (-115) by TKO/KO (+174)

UFC 211 - The King Owl Top Five Bets

#1 - Frankie Edgar wins (-120) [5un]
#2 - Demian Maia wins (+115) [4un]
#3 - Eddie Alvarez wins (+110) [3un]
#4 - Stipe Miocic wins (-130) [2un]
#5 - Chase Sherman wins (-115) [1un]
UFC 211 - Result: 4-0-1 (+11,16un)

UFC 211 - The King Owl Top Three Crazy Bets

#1 - Jedrzecjczyk vs Andrade draw fight (+6600.00)
#2 - Miocic wins in round 4 (+1025)
#3 - Christensen wins by TKO/KO (+1070)

sexta-feira, 12 de maio de 2017

UFC 211 - Predictions - Free Picks


UFC 211 - The King Owl Card Bet

Stipe Miocic vs Junior dos Santos
Stipe Miocic wins (-130) by TKO/KO (+137)

Joanna Jedrzecjczyk vs Jessica Andrade
Jessica Andrade wins (+167) by Decision (+385)

Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal
Demian Maia wins (+115) by Submission (+256)

Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodriguez
Frankie Edgar wins (-120) inside distance (+560)

Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier
Eddie Alvarez wins (+110) by Decision (+255)

David Branch vs Krzystof Jotko

Krzystof Jotko wins (-150) by Decision (+140)

Chas Skelly vs Jason Knight
Jason Knight wins (+100) inside distance (+275)

Rashad Coulter vs Chase Sherman
Chase Sherman wins (-115) by TKO/KO (+174)

UFC 211 - The King Owl Top Five Bets

#1 - Frankie Edgar wins (-120) [5un]
#2 - Demian Maia wins (+115) [4un]
#3 - Eddie Alvarez wins (+110) [3un]
#4 - Stipe Miocic wins (-130) [2un]
#5 - Chase Sherman wins (-115) [1un]

UFC 211 - The King Owl Top Three Crazy Bets

#1 - Jedrzecjczyk vs Andrade draw fight (+6600.00)
#2 - Miocic wins in round 4 (+1025)
#3 - Christensen wins by TKO/KO (+1070)

quinta-feira, 11 de maio de 2017

UFC 211 - Stipe Miocic vs Junior dos Santos 2 - Prediction


[C] Stipe Miocic (16-2) vs [#4] Junior "Cigano" dos Santos (18-4)

After the fight against Overeem, Junior dos Santos faced Ben Rothwell. Even Rothwell coming from four straight wins, including a knockout against Overeem, the american was not the favorite in this fight. Junior dos Santos is far superior in boxing. Rothwell has a poor footwork and disfavors slow strikes. This was the fight for Cigano to erase his last defeat. When the fight started it was visible as the Brazilian was much more cautious than normal. He was not releasing the strikes. He avoided the beginning of the fight. Until he received a punch and opened the eyebrow, this made the situation worse and he had to run through the octagon. He continued to take punches for the first three minutes, until Rothwell tired and dos Santos could breathe to strike again. Junior dos Santos was prepared to fight five rounds as three of his last five fights had reached the fifth round. While Rothwell is barely accustomed to having to fight a third round. Despite not having a good performance, the Brazilian did not have many problems to win the following rounds. Except it was expected of him, a win for knockout within the 25-minute fight.

Miocic lives his best moment inside the UFC. His last defeat was in 2014 exactly against Junior dos Santos. The duel between them in UFC on FOX 13 was very disputed. After five rounds, the decision went to the judges and any of them could have been a winner. After two straight knockouts, against Mark Hunt and Arlovski, Miocic had his chance against Werdum for the heavyweight belt in Brazil. Without feeling the pressure of the fans, Miocic knocked out Werdum in the first round. His first belt defense was against Overeem, who had just beat Junior dos Santos. Again with a knockout in the first round, Miocic won.


If we are going to check the fights following the duel of the two in 2014, we will see four Miocic knockout victories, two in their opponent's country. While Junior dos Santos made only two fights, being knocked out in one and having difficulties to beat an inferior opponent.

Miocic is in a better phase. More confident. He evolved more than his opponent. Junior dos Santos showed many flaws in his last fight, which can be taken advantage of by Miocic. The script for this fight should look pretty much like the previous one, with the two going into striking in a beautiful boxing match. But in this new duel of five rounds, Miocic  fix the small details that missed the last time and win this fight by decision or even get a knockout in a Junior of Santos that no longer has the same absorption of strikes of before.

It is interesting to see that the market opened with the line of rounds at 1.5, even the last fight having reached the five rounds. If I had to bet on who has the knockout power up, I would go from Miocic to TKO / KO (2.54). But for believing that the two can reissue the last duel, only with a different final result ... the safe bet would be the simple victory of Miocic (1.80) since the odds is good.

UFC 211 - Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Jéssica Andrade - Prediction


[C] Joanna Jedrzejczyk (13-0) vs [#3] Jéssica "Bate-Estaca" Andrade (16-5)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk won her belt in 2015 after beating Carla Esparza. There have been four belt defenses so far. Undefeated in the thirteen fights he did, being seven in the UFC, the Polish fighter comes to his fifth defense against Brazilian Jéssica Andrade. Both in the belt defense against Valerie Letourneau and Cláudia Gadelha, the Polish had problems in the first two rounds. With the arrival of the third round, their opponents can not keep up the same pace and it is time for the champion to show why they hold the belt. As her opponents wear out and fall from production, Joanna only improves her performance and wins the fight by decision. This becomes clear when we look at the number of significant strikes in each round. Against Gadelha, the first round had 19 significant strikes to Joanna and 14 to Gadelha. In the second, 11-9. When the third arrives, we already notice the difference with 40-18 and the fourth round makes clear, with 69-11. In the fight against Letourneau she came to beat the record of significant hits connected in a belt defense in the UFC.

This time, another Brazilian has the chance to dethrone Joanna. The chance now is for Jessica "Bate-Estaca" Andrade. It has a fighting style similar to Gadelha. The two are excellent finishers, so much so that in a category where most of the fights go to decision, these two have more than half of their victories in finalizations. But two are the differences between them that can make Andrade far better than his compatriot. The first is that Andrade has an average of 6.80 significant strikes per minute in his fights, against "only" 3.59 of Gadelha, which would give a bigger volume to her in the fight and second, that Andrade has shown a much better cardio. In her last fight, against Angela Hill, Andrade had an excellent performance not only during the entire fight, but her best moment was in the third round where she almost finished the fight.

My prediction for the fight is that Andrade follow in the footsteps of Joanna's last opponents and can score better in the first two rounds. Because the Brazilian does not have experience in five-round fights, it is very likely that Joanna can score better in the fourth and fifth rounds. It would be the third round to decide who will get the belt. That is when my bet happens. I think Andrade can win the first three rounds and take the belt home. She has enough cardio to fight well for three consecutive rounds and beat Joanna. In addition, there is the possibility of getting a knockdown or even a submission, since Joanna is usually thrown to the ground over three to four times in the first rounds. Andrade can get hold of Joanna on the grid, knockdown and manage to finalize the fight still in the beginning.

My bet will be on a victory for Jéssica Andrade. For the safer bettors, I suggest not betting on this fight and just watch. If you want a bit of excitement while watching the fight, you can bet on a victory of Andrade (2.30).

R1: Andrade 10-9 (Andrade 10-9)
R2: Andrade 10-9 (Andrade 20-18)
R3: Andrade 10-9 (Andrade 30-27)
R4: Joanna 10-9 (Andrade 39-37)
R5: Joanna 10-8 (DRAW 47-47)
Bet: Draw (67.0).

quarta-feira, 10 de maio de 2017

UFC 211 - Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal - Prediction


[#3] Demian Maia (24-6) vs [#5] Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal (32-11)

Even with good results in the Middleweight division, Demian Maia has never been so good as now. When she decided to change the category, Maia was already 34 years old. It seemed to be too late to make such a change in your life. The two straight losses to Shields and Rory could have shown that the Brazilian had no more chance of anything in the UFC. But his current run of six wins, one of them even against a former champion and who had just disputed the belt, made Maia resurface from the ashes.

Jorge Masvidal has always been an exciting fighter. In 2011 he lived his best moment, disputing the belt of Strikeforce with Melendez, but ended up being defeated. Already in the UFC, could not maintain a sequence of victories, that gave him the opportunity to dispute a belt again. Coming from three straight victories and an excellent exhibit against Cowboy Cerrone, Masvidal emerges as the darling of the crowd. With an aggressive style and always going forward, the American hopes to return to the belt after a possible victory at UFC 211.

Maia beat good strikers like Carlos Condit and Matt Brown. Good grapplers like Gunnar Nelson and Ryan Laflare. The Brazilian is prepared for everything. He has grabbed his opponents like a tick. It takes opponents to the ground anyway. Single Leg, Double Leg. Somehow the Brazilian will be able to take you to the ground. If he can not, he ends up winning the fight in the judges' decision to have dominated the opponent most of the time.

Meanwhile, Masvidal is a fighter who likes to fight. He likes to give a show to the crowd. It always goes forward. Even when he is in danger, he keeps fighting. You will not see Masvidal running around the octagon avoiding your opponent or raising up and waiting for the opponent to leave the ground. In the fight against Chiesa (who has 10 wins per submission), even when he was on the ground, Masvidal remained on the ground until he was able to reverse the position and finish the opponent at his own game.

That's where I believe in the Brazilian's victory. Masvidal will end up accepting Demian Maia's gameplan and will be finalized. I do not see Masvidal running away from the grid, or running from the clinch attempts, or trying to get up when he's on the ground. I see the American pounding even when the situation is bad for him. Only now he's facing Demian Maia. The Brazilian has not lost any chance to finish his opponents.

In my opinion, it is very likely that Maia ends up winning by submission. Even if it's only three rounds, at some point Masvidal will make a mistake. If the Brazilian fails in their takedown attempts, he would still be able to score better in the first two rounds for controlling the fight. Masvidal's chance would be in the third round, as Maia may end up getting tired of the frustrated takedown attempts. Even the fight trying to decide the judges, I believe one of the fighters can finish before. Even at the last second.

My safe bet is on the simple victory of Demian Maia (2.10), since I believe in a 29-28 judges' decision or a submission win. For those who want more emotion, I would bet on the Brazilian's victory by decision (5.36), as the market believes the fight will only have two rounds.

segunda-feira, 8 de maio de 2017

UFC 211 - Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodríguez - Prediction



[#3] Frankie "The Answer" Edgar (21-5) vs [#7] Yair "Pantera" Rodríguez (10-1)

Yair Rodriguez is one of the fighters of the new generation of UFC. Started to fight MMA in 2011 and won the TUF Latin America in 2014. There were five fights in the UFC, with four performance and night fight prizes. With a very aggressive style, the Mexican has won several fans. The problem is that Rodriguez, faced four opponents out of the UFC ranking top 20 and a retired BJ Penn. Now he faces the number three of the divison. It is a very big leap for the young fighter of 24 years and this can be a problem.

When Yair started to fight in 2011, Frankie Edgar was already lightweight UFC champion. Always facing top-level athletes, Edgar continues with good results. From 2013 he lost only to Jose Aldo and beat Stephens, Mendes, Faber, Swanson and Do Bronx. Edgar has an incredible 70% defense against standing punches. It's a very high number for a fighter with 26 fights on his record. "The Answer" is on another level. A level that Rodriguez still came and did not even face someone like that.

Again I will touch the same key. Yair has never faced anyone like Edgar. Never faced anyone with the level of boxing that the American has. Never faced anyone with the level of wrestling that the American has. Frankie Edgar can knock the Mexican down any time he wants and keep the fight on the ground until next month. The size of Yair will also be no problem, since Edgar is accustomed to always be the little one. Edgar can beat Yair in all areas in this fight.

I expected quotas lower than 1.30 for Edgar, but the market opened at 1.38, which is acceptable. But now the line has moved up to 1.66 ~ 1.76 for Edgar. Why that?

In recent events, the UFC has match many fights from young fighters against veteran fighters. So far the younger fighters have performed well, increasing the hype of the crowd in them. This is the new generation and the new followers of the UFC cheer for them. This influences the odds. At the last event I was reading some predictions for fights in a forum and a guy wrote a giant text saying that the young fighter would win the veteran because he did not even know that veteran. This is visible when you see fighters like Yair Rodriguez, Sage Northcutt, among others, coming in with ridiculous dimensions.

Even though he had not made his best exhibition in his last fight, Frankie Edgar did just enough to win. If Yair gives work, the American has everything to win another fight. Yair will probably strike using distance, but I believe Frankie Edgar will find the time still in the first round. If Yair chooses to use the low kicks, he will end up easing Edgar's job of getting a takedown. I can not see a victory for Yair in this fight, of course taking an unexpected knockout.

To finish the text, the bet will be Frankie Edgar by simple victory (1.74) for the bettors who want a certain security. Even though I believe Edgar wins in the judges' decision, we may see a finalization if Edgar keeps the fight on the ground. For those who want more excitement during the fight, the bet is Frankie Edgar by decision (2.28).

segunda-feira, 1 de maio de 2017

UFC 211 - Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier - Prediction



[#3] Eddie Alvarez (28-5-0) vs [#9] Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier (21-5-0)

The former Bellator champion is arrived in the UFC in 2014 to face Donald Cerrone. A victory in his debut would already make him ready for a belt bout, but Alvarez was eventually defeated by Cowboy. He then defeated former Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez and former UFC champion Anthony Pettis. He won the opportunity to play the belt against Rafael dos Anjos and after taking good hits from the Brazilian, he got a turnaround in the first round, becoming the new UFC lightweight champion. His first defense was soon against Conor McGregor and ended up being knocked out in the second round. The last knockout suffered by Alvarez, had been nine years ago.

Dustin Poirier began fighting in 2009 at the same time that Eddie Alvarez was about to be champion of Bellator. Poirier had his big moment in the UFC in 2012, when he could be the next challenger to the belt. He ended up being defeated by the Korean Zumbi and a defeat for Swanson put him far in the line. After three consecutive wins, "The Diamond" returned to appear among the tops of the division when facing Conor McGregor, but was knocked out in the first round. He decided to return to the lightweight category in 2015, winning four straight wins. But a loss to Michael Johnson interrupted his sequence.

This is another nonsense UFC fight. On one side the former champion who has just been defeated by Conor McGregor. On the other, the number nine in the ranking that comes from just a simple victory against a fighter out of the top 15 in the division.

Although Poirier has a longer reach than most of his opponents in the lightweight division, he can not take full advantage of this, causing him to receive many unnecessary strikes. Another problem of Poirier, is to let his opponent dictate the pace of the fight, even in the moments that he is better. This will be a serious problem against Alvarez, who knows very well how to show for the judges that he won the round, even when he was beaten more often. Alvarez manages to absorb the strikes well, making it appear that they were not effective. Alvarez manages to work well the low kicks and the correct moment of the fight to try a takedown. In addition, Poirier's chin has not lived up to the nickname of "Diamond" and he may end up having the same end as Rafael dos Anjos.

The odds (1.90) on each side do not make the slightest sense for this fight if we compare the level of opponents each had in their last five fights. While Alvarez faced top 5 fighters in the Lightweight division, Poirier only faced fighters outside the Top 15 and lost to the only Top 10. The odds for each by knockout are very similar to the odds of winning by decision.

I believe that Alvarez manages to reduce the pace of the fight considerably to undermine Poirier's style and score gradually, winning in the decision. Alvarez should have no problem in takedown Poirier and keeping him on the ground for as long as he needs to. He can work well on leg kicks to undermine Poirier. Dominate the fight in the clinch and leave victorious by points in the decision of the judges. If the two fighters forget to defend themselves and decide to strike madly, I believe that Alvarez wins with a knockout, to better absorb the strikes and to have a better chin than Poirier. 

Therefore, the safest bet for this fight is a simple victory for Alvarez (1.91). If you want more excitement while watching the fight, I suggest (but it's a lot of excitement anyway) that you bet on Under 1.5 rounds (2.85) and have fun watching them both go forward even taking punches.