quinta-feira, 1 de junho de 2017

UFC 212 - The King Owl Top Five Bets - Free Picks - Free Prediction


 
UFC 212 - The King Owl Top Five Bets

[#1] José Aldo wins (1.70) (-142) [5un]
[#2] Claudia Gadelha wins by decision (1.56) (-180) [4un]
[#3] Belfort vs Marquardt Under 1.5 rounds (1.48) (-210) [3un]
[#4] Vitor Belfort wins inside distance (1.78) (-128) [2un]
[#5] Oluwale Bamgbose wins (3.35) (+235) [1un]

quarta-feira, 31 de maio de 2017

UFC 212 - José Aldo vs Max Holloway - Predictions


[#C] José "Scarface" Aldo (26-2) vs [#1] Max "Blessed" Holloway (17-3)

Ten years undefeated. WEC Champion. UFC Champion. Best UFC P4P fighter for a while. Best fighter of the featherweight division of all time. Won Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, Ricardo Lamas, Korean Zombie, Florian Kenny, Urijah Faber, Cub Swanson ...

He lost his unbeaten record to Conor McGregor. A quick fight. Only thirteen seconds. In thirteen seconds we saw Jose Aldo do something he had never done before. Run like crazy in the opponent's direction. If you think McGregor "broke" José Aldo, please forget that, review the Brazilian's last fight and tell me how someone "broken" can fight like that. Seven months later, Jose Aldo would contest the belt against Frankie Edgar. Completely focused and without making any mistake, the Brazilian won the fight. It was a perfect performance. He defended all takedown attempts against the division's best wrestler and one of the best in the world.

Max Holloway also lost to Conor McGregor. After this fight, the Hawaiian won his next ten fights. He is only 25 years old and will probably be the big name of the category when Jose Aldo retires. The two even have similar styles. So far he has had no problem in overcoming his opponents. But he got to the belt without facing Frankie Edgar or Chad Mendes. That's a downside. Is he really prepared to face a guy like Jose Aldo? The Brazilian is on another level. We will hardly see Holloway win. In what area could he win? I sincerely do not know. I do not see his victory.

I predict a good fight of exactly 25 minutes. Where we will see José Aldo frustrate any attempt of the American. The Brazilian will probably win every round (maybe lose the score of the last round). I believe that this fight will be more like "José Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar 2" than with "José Aldo vs. Chad Mendes 2".

The odds for José Aldo's victory have floated between (1.60) and (1.70), but someone who really likes Max Holloway bet on him and now we have a beautiful (1.90). You can bet on the Brazilian. Bet now. Because I do not see that odds increasing. This is the best value you will get. Follow me and pick José Aldo victory (1.90).

terça-feira, 30 de maio de 2017

UFC 212 - Claudia Gadelha vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Predictions


[#1] Claudia "Claudinha" Gadelha (14-2) vs [#2] Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-1)

The two fighters had their stories only stained by defeat for Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Beyond this resemblance, aggressiveness is another commonplace. Both are very aggressive standing. They are always going forward. Striking. Karolina Kowalkiewicz uses a lot or elbow. Both absorb the blows well. They were never finalized. It has everything to be a very close fight.

The difference in this fight, will be: and when things go wrong? And when will a stronger blow come in? And when one of them feels the blow?

Claudinha Gadelha is excellent at takedown attempts. It has an accuracy of 57%, and defend with 83% success. He takedown Joanna Jedrzejczyk seven times in the first duel. He takedown Lahdemaki five times. In their last fight against Casey, they were six takedowns. While Karolina Kowalkiewicz has only two takedown attempts in the last seventy minutes of fighting. Since neither attempt was successful.

If things go wrong for the Brazilian, she can take the fight to the floor. The same can not be said of Karolina. It is in this advantage that I believe that the victory of Claudinha Gadelha will come. She has more options for victory than Karolina Kowalkiewicz. If the Brazilian does not feel comfortable standing, she can take the fight to the ground and dominate Karolina Kowalkiewicz for the rest of the fight. The Brazilian is not aggressive only in the standing game. When he is on the ground, he always searches for the finishing and works well on the ground and pound.

My prediction for the fight is that Gadelha wins in the decision (1.63). The Brazilian should score better in the first two rounds. Putting the fight down when needed. Dominating the opponent. In the third round, the Brazilian usually slows down since her cardio is not the best. At this point, Karolina will take advantage to try the finish but I do not think she can. As I said earlier, if Gadelha finds herself in a dangerous situation she can easily take the fight to the ground.

segunda-feira, 29 de maio de 2017

UFC 212 - Vitor Belfort vs Nate Marquardt - Predictions


[#11] Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort (25-13) vs [#+15] Nate "The Great" Marquardt (35-17)

Vitor Belfort and Nate Marquardt. The two have already been big names in the middleweight division. Today, they live their worst moments. Vitor Belfort went into decline in the UFC after the use of TRT was banned. This was visible in the Brazilian's shape. Belfort has lost four of his last five fights. Marquardt started to have poor results when he traded the UFC for Strikeforce. Marquardt has lost seven of his last ten fights. Most of those fights by knockouts in the first two rounds.

This is the last fight of Vitor Belfort in the UFC. A fight in Brazil. In Rio de Janeiro. It's the end he wanted. He certainly chose this fight against Marquardt. He could have picked some inexperienced fighter, but he did not want to. He wanted someone with a story. Someone great. Someone was a challenge to him. Someone who could give him a good fight. The final battle. Someone who could easily be knocked out by the strong hands of the phenomenon.

I know it's hard to bet on Vitor Belfort. I know he lives the worst moment of his twenty plus year career. But the scenario is all set for a Brazilian victory. A beautiful victory. An expetacular knockout. He does not want to say goodbye to Brazil with a defeat. He does not want to say goodbye to the UFC being knocked out. He wants to repeat the moment he had against Wanderlei Silva. He will knock out Marquardt not only with his hand, but with the hand of all the fans.

Most likely this fight will end in the first round. Both have a very heavy hand and a very light chin. Any displacement of air near the chin of one of the two and finished. Still, Belfort has managed to keep that initial blast in the fights. He's tired two minutes after he blows out, but I believe those two minutes will be enough to knock out the Marquardt.

The Brazilian did not have easy life in the last fights, since it caught two very fast fighters like Gastelum and Jacaré. This time he faced an extremely slow opponent. I think it's time for this explosion to really blow up the opponent and not the Brazilian himself.

I'm a big fan of Vitor Belfort. You can feel free not to follow me in this fight. But it's impossible not to bet on a win of it. I could bet on Belfort's victory by knockout. But the odds are so similar to that of simple victory that they make me think ... thinking that the Brazilian could make the night more special by using his Brazilian jiu-jitsu. That is why my bet will be on the simple victory of Vitor Belfort (1.74). In the victory of Brazil.

quarta-feira, 24 de maio de 2017

UFC Fight Night 109 - Gustafsson vs Teixeira - Predictions


[#1] Alexander "The Mauler" Gustafsson  (17-4) vs [#2] Glover Teixeira (26-5)

I particularly do not like to bet on an event like that. Lots of local fighters. Many unknown fighters. The UFC calls the country's event fighters for a one-fight or two-fight contract. Just to please the public who would like to see their countrymen fighting. Odds also do not help. Superfavorite fighters, where you can not be trusted at all. It is very risky to gamble on such an event. So I'll just do an analysis of the main event of the night. Alexander Gustafsson v Glover Teixeira.

In 2013, after six straight wins, Gustafsson was the most likely fighter to beat Jon Jones. Not just for being a skilled fighter, but for being as big as Jones. "The Mauler" would have no problem with the American's reach. The fight was very disputed. Jon Jones won by unanimous decision. But many people saw Gustafsson's victory.

The following year, Gustafsson would again win against Jimi Manuwa and have a new chance against Jon Jones. Only an injury took the "The Mauler" out of the fight. After ten months stopped, he returns to the UFC to face Anthony Johnson in Sweden. It was the perfect fight for him. Fighting at home and against one of the best in the division. After an disregard in the first round, Gustafsson was knocked out. To lose in front of his fans, almost once the Swede retires. A few months later, he would fight Daniel Cormier for the belt. Was defeated by split decision. Again injured, Gustafsson only returned to fight a year later. Facing Jan Blachowicz, an opponent who had two losses in four fights at the UFC, Gustafsson had a performance well below the expected and only achieved a victory by unanimous decision.

The story of Glover Teixeira is not much different. After five straight wins, he fought for the belt and was defeated by Jon Jones. He had his chance again to fight a belt, when facing Anthony Johnson but was knocked out. This year, he faced the weakest fighter he has had in the UFC since 2012 and won by unanimous decision, without showing a good performance.

Again Gustafsson will fight in a UFC in Sweden. He certainly does not want to repeat the last fight. A second home defeat, even more by knockout, could end the fighter's career altogether. So I believe he will fight very cautiously this time. So he does not make the same mistake as before. He does not have to take a chance against Glover Teixeira. He knows that the Brazilian has a high power of knockout. I believe Gustafsson will keep the fight at distance. Use the reach. Run through the octagon. A jab here and another there. Punctuating slowly. He'll probably control the fight until the Brazilian gets tired. In the fourth round, it may be that Gustafsson press Glover Teixeira and try a finish. It is better to make an ugly fight and win the points, than to make a beautiful fight and lose by knockout in home (again).

My bet is Over 2.5 rounds (1.71) and that's it. I no longer see any value in other bets. Maybe Glover Teixeira by knockout (7.00), but still I do not believe he gets the knockout.

See you at UFC Brazil next week.

domingo, 14 de maio de 2017

UFC 211 - Bet Results


UFC 211 - The King Owl Card Bet

Results: GREEN = WIN, RED = LOSS

Stipe Miocic vs Junior dos Santos
Stipe Miocic wins (-130) by TKO/KO (+137)

Joanna Jedrzecjczyk vs Jessica Andrade
Jessica Andrade wins (+167) by Decision (+385)

Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal
Demian Maia wins (+115) by Submission (+256)

Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodriguez
Frankie Edgar wins (-120) inside distance (+560)

Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier
Eddie Alvarez wins (+110) by Decision (+255)
NO CONTEST FIGHT

David Branch vs Krzystof Jotko

Krzystof Jotko wins (-150) by Decision (+140)

Chas Skelly vs Jason Knight
Jason Knight wins (+100) inside distance (+275)

Rashad Coulter vs Chase Sherman
Chase Sherman wins (-115) by TKO/KO (+174)

UFC 211 - The King Owl Top Five Bets

#1 - Frankie Edgar wins (-120) [5un]
#2 - Demian Maia wins (+115) [4un]
#3 - Eddie Alvarez wins (+110) [3un]
#4 - Stipe Miocic wins (-130) [2un]
#5 - Chase Sherman wins (-115) [1un]
UFC 211 - Result: 4-0-1 (+11,16un)

UFC 211 - The King Owl Top Three Crazy Bets

#1 - Jedrzecjczyk vs Andrade draw fight (+6600.00)
#2 - Miocic wins in round 4 (+1025)
#3 - Christensen wins by TKO/KO (+1070)

sexta-feira, 12 de maio de 2017

UFC 211 - Predictions - Free Picks


UFC 211 - The King Owl Card Bet

Stipe Miocic vs Junior dos Santos
Stipe Miocic wins (-130) by TKO/KO (+137)

Joanna Jedrzecjczyk vs Jessica Andrade
Jessica Andrade wins (+167) by Decision (+385)

Demian Maia vs Jorge Masvidal
Demian Maia wins (+115) by Submission (+256)

Frankie Edgar vs Yair Rodriguez
Frankie Edgar wins (-120) inside distance (+560)

Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier
Eddie Alvarez wins (+110) by Decision (+255)

David Branch vs Krzystof Jotko

Krzystof Jotko wins (-150) by Decision (+140)

Chas Skelly vs Jason Knight
Jason Knight wins (+100) inside distance (+275)

Rashad Coulter vs Chase Sherman
Chase Sherman wins (-115) by TKO/KO (+174)

UFC 211 - The King Owl Top Five Bets

#1 - Frankie Edgar wins (-120) [5un]
#2 - Demian Maia wins (+115) [4un]
#3 - Eddie Alvarez wins (+110) [3un]
#4 - Stipe Miocic wins (-130) [2un]
#5 - Chase Sherman wins (-115) [1un]

UFC 211 - The King Owl Top Three Crazy Bets

#1 - Jedrzecjczyk vs Andrade draw fight (+6600.00)
#2 - Miocic wins in round 4 (+1025)
#3 - Christensen wins by TKO/KO (+1070)